Ohtani's WAR: The Missing Piece in His Historic Season

Shohei Ohtani's 2022 season was one for the ages. The Los Angeles Angels' star player dominated on the mound and at the plate, earning him a spot on the American League All-Star team and making a strong case for the AL MVP award. But despite his impressive performance, Ohtani's WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is surprisingly low. In this article, we'll explore the reasons behind this disparity and examine what it says about Ohtani's season.

Ohtani's WAR, which measures a player's total value to their team, has been a subject of debate among baseball fans and analysts. With a WAR of 7.1, Ohtani ranks 11th in the AL, behind players like Aaron Judge and Jose Ramirez. But if you watch Ohtani play, you know that his impact on the game goes far beyond that number. He's a two-way player who can dominate on the mound and hit home runs, making him one of the most exciting players in baseball.

So, why isn't Ohtani's WAR higher? There are several reasons, but one major factor is the lack of defensive metrics. WAR relies heavily on traditional defensive metrics like fielding percentage and range factor, which don't accurately capture Ohtani's defensive abilities. As a pitcher, Ohtani is responsible for covering more territory and making more plays than other pitchers, but this is not reflected in his WAR.

"Ohtani's defensive skills are incredibly valuable, but they're not being fully captured by traditional defensive metrics," says Marc Normandin, a sabermetrician and contributor to FanGraphs. "He's a pitcher who covers more ground and makes more plays than most pitchers, but that's not being accounted for in his WAR."

Another reason Ohtani's WAR is lower than expected is the way WAR treats pitchers and position players differently. WAR calculates a pitcher's value based on their ERA, walks, and home runs allowed, while position players are evaluated on their batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. This creates a disparity in how pitchers and position players are evaluated, which can result in a lower WAR for a two-way player like Ohtani.

The Impact of Defensive Metrics

Traditional defensive metrics, such as fielding percentage and range factor, are used to evaluate a player's defensive abilities. However, these metrics have been widely criticized for being inaccurate and incomplete. For example, a player with a high fielding percentage may have had a few lucky plays or been helped by a strong defensive teammate, while a player with a low fielding percentage may be under the gun unfairly.

Ohtani's defensive metrics are a good example of this. According to FanGraphs, Ohtani had a fielding percentage of.950 in 2022, which is high but not exceptional. However, his defensive runs saved (DRS) were significantly higher, at 14. This suggests that Ohtani is making plays and covering more ground than the traditional metrics are giving him credit for.

The Pitfalls of Traditional Defensive Metrics

Traditional defensive metrics have several pitfalls that can result in inaccurate evaluations. For example:

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they are often based on small sample sizes, which can result in volatility and error;

* they are influenced by a player's position and teammate, which can create biases and distortions;

* they do not account for advanced defensive metrics, such as DRS and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), which provide a more complete picture of a player's defensive abilities.

The Two-Way Player Problem

Ohtani's WAR is lower than expected because WAR treats pitchers and position players differently. This can create a disparity in how two-way players are evaluated, as WAR is not designed to account for the unique challenges and opportunities that come with pitching and hitting.

According to research by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), two-way players are often undervalued by WAR because the metric is biased towards traditional position players. This means that two-way players like Ohtani, who pitch and hit, are at a disadvantage compared to position players who only hit.

The Disadvantage of Two-Way Players

Two-way players face several challenges that are not accounted for in WAR:

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they are more likely to be penalized for pitching and hitting, rather than being rewarded for their unique abilities;

* they are more likely to be evaluated based on traditional metrics, rather than advanced defensive metrics;

* they are more likely to be compared to position players, rather than pitchers, which can result in a lower WAR.

The Future of WAR

WAR is a valuable metric for evaluating player performance, but it has its limitations. As baseball analytics continue to evolve, we can expect to see new and improved metrics that better capture a player's value. For example:

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Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) are advanced defensive metrics that provide a more complete picture of a player's defensive abilities;

* Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Weighted Runs Created (wRC) are advanced metrics that account for the value of different types of hits and batting performances;

* Base-Runs (bWAR) and Wins Above Replacement (WAR) are versions of WAR that account for more advanced defensive metrics and provide a more accurate picture of a player's value.

The Advancements in WAR

WAR is evolving to better capture a player's value. Some of the advancements in WAR include:

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the use of advanced defensive metrics like DRS and UZR;

* the use of weighted metrics like wOBA and wRC;

* the incorporation of more data sources and methodologies.

The Verdict on Ohtani's WAR

Ohtani's WAR is surprisingly low, considering his impressive performance on the mound and at the plate. However, there are several reasons for this disparity, including the lack of defensive metrics and the way WAR treats pitchers and position players differently. As WAR continues to evolve, we can expect to see more accurate and complete evaluations of players like Ohtani.

"Ohtani's WAR is a good reminder that WAR is not perfect," says Normandin. "It's a valuable metric, but it has its limitations. As we continue to refine and improve WAR, we'll get a more accurate picture of a player's value."

The Future of Ohtani's WAR

Ohtani's WAR may be low, but it's not a reflection of his true value to the Angels. As WAR continues to evolve, we can expect to see Ohtani's WAR rise, reflecting his contributions on the mound and at the plate. For now, however, his WAR remains a subject of debate among baseball fans and analysts.

"Ohtani's WAR is just one piece of the puzzle," says Normandin. "He's a unique player who deserves to be evaluated on his own terms. As we continue to refine our metrics, we'll get a better picture of his true value."